Spears - the great paper weight

[John Meunier]

I'm perplexed by all the positive talk about spears as a troop type. In my (limited) experience in real live head-to-head playing, I've had spears (psiloi-backed no less) killed by elephants, warband, blades and knights with great regularity.

I've taken to looking at them as space-eaters. Troops that you want to attract -- but not actually engage -- as many enemy troops as possible so you can win somewhere else.

Being eager about enemy knights charging your spear line is a recipe for a high body count, I've found. Elephants, oh dear.

Why do these poor boys get so much love?

[Ares]

I would be tempted to chalk it up to some weird bad-dice mojo you've got going, since theoretically... in all probability... Spears should be able to hold their own most of the time. I don't dislike them, but I find them bland - slow, dependent on support, not as useful as Blades; I make sure they are psiloi-backed. If nothing else, they are superb camp-guards.

Eric

[David Kuijt]

Spear with psiloi support should be able to kill knights. Warband are a smidge tougher because they can double-rank, but they'll lose two if they get doubled, so statistically the odds are still in your favour. Against blades and elephants you're going to lose, although with psiloi support and clever play you can make it very hard on the elephants.

But if you are getting beat by knights when your spear have psiloi support, either you are letting them get overlaps or you need to stop rolling so many '1's.

[Pthomas]

John,

While it is true that in a straight up battle between knight and psi supported spear the odds of each destroying the other is equal (6 in 36), but the most likely outcome is the recoil of the knight. Which on subsequent battles gives the spear a 12 in 36 chance of destroying the knight and 18 in 20 of recoiling.

I think your spear elements may sense your lack of confidence in them. Buy them a beer and tell them they're special and they'll go out and kick butt for you.

[Chris Brantley]

[NOTE: I have corrected this post to fix the error noted by David Kuijt above, to avoid causing unnecessary confusion]

Admittedly an unromantic way to look at the DBA rules, here is how Knights at +3 vs. Spear (with Psiloi support) at +5 plays out mathematically:

Knights are killed 17% of the time (6/36)
Knights recoil 55% of the time (20/36)
Knights and Spears lock 11% of the time (4/36)
Knights quick-kill Spear 17% of the time (6/36)

You've also got the potential of losing the Psiloi providing direct rear support to factor into your risk analysis.

Several suggested conclusions:

Odds are pretty good (30/36 or 83%) that nothing bad will happen to your spear (and its support), but that something bad is fatal.

It is also likely that your odds will be improved by overlap support, unless your attacker can match your spearwall element for element. You've also got the ability to improve the odds further by double-ranking your spear at the point of impact to gain additional rear support.

A Knight's "lethality" against Psiloi-support Spear is equal (i.e. a 17% kill rate). But you don't want to give the Knights too many "free" chances to hit your line with their quick-kill capability. You need some supporting and/or reserve troops nearby to help envelop the knights if and when they hit and bounce or lock. Either that, or you need to use your spear wall as the defensive "holding" part of your command and focus on winning the battle quickly elsewhere.

The great vulnerability of Knights is their impetuous follow-up, which moves them in double-overlap positions. If you could hit a double-overlapped Knight with Psiloi-supported Spear for example, your chance of killing it by doubling is up to 50% (18/36). A spear without psiloi support would still kill the double overlapped Knight 33% (12/36) of the time.

You get this same advantage even without the impetuous follow-up if a line of knights hits and recoils, leaving one element locked in an overlapped position.

Against elements that Knights quick-kill (like Spear), there are no impetuous follow-ups from recoils, only from quick-kills. That means you need to have something in reserve to counterattack the knight when it punches a hole through your line, otherwise you lose the chance to hit them when they are most vulnerable.

[ May 22, 2005, 15:16: Message edited by: Chris Brantley ]

[David Kuijt]

Originally posted by Chris Brantley:
Admittedly an unromantic way to look at the DBA rules, here is how Knights at +3 vs. Spear (with Psiloi support) at +5 plays out mathematically:

Knights are killed 11% of the time (4/36)
Knights recoil 47% of the time (17/36)
Knights and Spears lock 14% of the time (5/36)
Knights quick-kill Spear 28% of the time (10/36)
There is some error in your math, Chris. Looks like you quoted the math for Kn-vs-Sp without Psiloi support?

One Kn hits one Ps-supported-Spear (+3w/QK vs. +5):
Kn dies 6/36
Kn recoils 20/36
Lock 4/36
Sp/Ps dies 6/36

But the point is that if three knights hit a group of three spear with a single psiloi support, the 20/36 chance that the first Kn recoils changes the odds on the two remaining rolls by giving overlaps; this becomes

Overlapped Kn on Ps-supported-Sp (+2:+5):
Kn dies 12/36
Kn recoils 18/36
Lock 3/36
Sp dies 3/36

Which puts the Kn dieing four times as often as the Sp.

[imported_adsarf]

Originally posted by David Kuijt:
But if you are getting beat by knights when your spear have psiloi support, either you are letting them get overlaps or you need to stop rolling so many '1's. Or (as Chris says) you haven't got a reserve element to kill the lucky one that gets through.

I'm one of those in the Ps-Supported Spear are great camp.

With average luck, Kn and Wb are no threat to Ps-supported spear. Double-ranked Wb are particularly useless IME, they just lose more quickly. Elephants are tougher, so better to put Sp-supported Ps against those. Blades are a real threat unless you can gain a tactical advantage (flanks, a slope, or whatever), but no-one ever claimed that Ps-supported spear were supermen - they beat most opponents rather than all opponents.

I think, John, you are just falling into your old trap of not thinking like a highly analytical, victory-focussed competition player. Where we see a troop type with few weaknesses, able to fight a wide variety of opponents in an open competition, you see blandness and lack of character.

You cannot play Spear effectively with a devil-may-care attitude and a song in your heart. You need to focus less on having fun and more on winning. Then you will appreciate the true beauty of Spear.

Andrew

[Cyrus the Ringmaster]

I find that better painting improves the troops results in combat. Perhaps your spears need new uniforms.

[David Kuijt]

Originally posted by adsarf:

I think, John, you are just falling into your old trap of not thinking like a highly analytical, victory-focussed competition player.
Really. What are you thinking?!?



You cannot play Spear effectively with a devil-may-care attitude and a song in your heart. Although I agree with most of what Andrew says, I think he misses the boat slightly here. You CAN fight Spear with a song in your heart -- but which song? If you have a LH song (flight of the bumblebees, for example), your Spear will fail. If you have a Kn song (1812 Overture is good), your Spear will fail. You need a Spear song in your heart. Spear fight in a shield wall. They can't have a song of maneuver, and the can't have a song of drama -- they need a song of stolidity, of togetherness, of systematic advance against adversity. If you can't sing that sort of song in your mind, Spear are not for you.

Some people are just not built to do well with certain element types. Are you flighty, flexible, and fluid? Fight with LH. Are you a "do or die", all or nothing, dramatic and heroic type? Fight with Knights (hum Ride of the Valkyries when you charge). But if you are either of those types, Spear will never seem to do what you want them to do.

In closing, I think that Cyrus also has the right of it -- my best-painted units, are, well, my best units.

[ May 23, 2005, 08:55: Message edited by: David Kuijt ]

[imported_JamesLDIII]

Originally posted by Cyrus the Ringmaster:
I find that better painting improves the troops results in combat. Perhaps your spears need new uniforms. Don't forget to make sure your best painted men are dressed in red. After all, we now have scientific proof that red is more successful.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/05/0518_050518_redsports.html

Perhaps that is why the Spartans were so successful ;)

[ May 23, 2005, 09:00: Message edited by: jldiii ]

[imported_adsarf]

Originally posted by Cyrus the Ringmaster:
I find that better painting improves the troops results in combat. I am very glad to say I always find the reverse. I'd be stuffed otherwise.

David, from the way you make it sound, you need to have a dirge in your heart to fight with Spear. Even I wouldn't go that far.

Andrew

[Bill Sumruld]

Besides table effectiveness, spear are high drama. They are band of brothers, "I've got your back" troops. Think Leonidas and his Greeks at Thermopylae or Pausanias and the Greek armies in the Battle of Plataea. They are teamwork personified and must be fought that way. Spear heavy armies depend on coordination of support and steadiness. They are never good for the impatient or someone who loses his confidence easily. For spear you must have a certain mentality, ready to aggresively defend your home and country but not given to emotional excess. Instead you need firm resolve. Think Greek Hoplites defending their homes and farms or their city. In case you haven't guessed, I like spear. I got hooked on the stories of the Dorian Spear long ago. Until blades countered them or pike overwhelmed them, they were the queen of the Classical battlefield and under the right conditions could in reality and in DBA give both pike and blades a tough fight. So what is not to like about spear. :D ;)

[Kanishka]

Spears are a "vanilla" troop type - with moderately high factors against everything and no particular vulnerabilities (at least none not also shared by other Hvy infantry).

This means you dont' have to worry so much about matchups with them and can spend your PIPs doing other things! smile.gif

[ May 23, 2005, 21:23: Message edited by: Kanishka ]

[Matthew Bailey]

Originally posted by Cyrus the Ringmaster:
I find that better painting improves the troops results in combat. Perhaps your spears need new uniforms. It does indeed improve the way they LOOK when in combat. I guess that is in a way improving their performance...

I have always been a proponent of "Look good no matter WHAT you are doing"...

[mickw]

David Kuijt wrote


"Although I agree with most of what Andrew says, I think he misses the boat slightly here. You CAN fight Spear with a song in your heart -- but which song? If you have a LH song (flight of the bumblebees, for example), your Spear will fail. If you have a Kn song (1812 Overture is good), your Spear will fail. You need a Spear song in your heart. Spear fight in a shield wall. They can't have a song of maneuver, and the can't have a song of drama -- they need a song of stolidity, of togetherness, of systematic advance against adversity. If you can't sing that sort of song in your mind, Spear are not for you."

Something by the Red Army Choir? "Smells like teen spirit" by Nirvana? Kraftwerk? Leonard Cohen?Be a bit more specific!

[Mark Davies]

John,
I think your spear elements may sense your lack of confidence in them. Buy them a beer and tell them they're special and they'll go out and kick butt for you.

That was true for me. Until I learnt a bit more about the odds I always figured that knights and warbands had the edge over spear. Now that I know the odds, my spear are doing much better (though I'm yet to buy them a beer):

http://hesperiana.wordpress.com/2009/10/23/dba-combat-odds/

[Pavane]

I look forward to playing against Knights with my Spear-heavy and Psiloi-backed Picts or Pre-Feudal Scots. I go hunting the Knights with a block of alternating columns of Sp/Sp and Sp/Ps. If one of the double Sp columns is led by your Spear-General then so much the better (a +7). Of course bad luck will spoil any plan, but here the odds are with you.

[Spanikopites]

It's getting close to Halloween when threads rise from the dead.

I'm getting a new appreciation for the long-dismissed spear...at the hands of my son.

Liamedes son of Spanikopites has been playing LHG against all comers lately. He's vanquished the Early Samurai and Mountain Indians* among others. This weekend it will be my Early Libyans who will try to stop his feta flavoured onslaught.

He succeeds by just getting 'stuck in' and pushing hard. And horseshoes up the ying-yang. I'll have a battle report this weekend.

*Seriously, he killed my El G!

[Mark Davies]

It's getting close to Halloween when threads rise from the dead.!
Yes, I have to take a lot of credit for that as I troll old threads and can't resist adding my 2 cents worth.:)

[Mark Davies]

I look forward to playing against Knights with my Spear-heavy and Psiloi-backed Picts or Pre-Feudal Scots. I go hunting the Knights with a block of alternating columns of Sp/Sp and Sp/Ps. If one of the double Sp columns is led by your Spear-General then so much the better (a +7). Of course bad luck will spoil any plan, but here the odds are with you.
I've just realized why I'm finding spear so good now. I've got plenty of psiloi support for them in the armies I use (North Welsh, Pre-feudal Scots and Picts). Like you I've gone hunting knights with these guys.

Previously I'd faced knights with Anglo-Danish and they don't have many psiloi, and double-ranking the spear risks losing too many elements if they lose as well as shortening the line. That said, I'm sure I could use them better than I did when I started.

[Macbeth]

In my ACT Tournaments where we issue the 'Magister Militum' Handicap prize I find that the Sp come out in droves. Using my (in)famous element rating system - Sp come out as the perfect balance between low cost and durability.

;)

Cheers

[Mark Davies]

In my ACT Tournaments where we issue the 'Magister Militum' Handicap prize I find that the Sp come out in droves. Using my (in)famous element rating system - Sp come out as the perfect balance between low cost and durability.

;)

Cheers
That rating system sounds very interesting. How does it work?

[TWR]

Mark,

Have a look here:
http://www.fanaticus.org/DBA/variants/ratingelements.html

I would have used it at Conquest but I think it really needs to be based on a fixed list. Conquest allows players to select options from within a defined list each game.

I came across it a while ago and posted about it on my own blog.
http://thewargamesroom.blogspot.com/2009/08/dba-ratings.html

[Mark Davies]

Mark,

Have a look here:
http://www.fanaticus.org/DBA/variants/ratingelements.html

I would have used it at Conquest but I think it really needs to be based on a fixed list. Conquest allows players to select options from within a defined list each game.

I came across it a while ago and posted about it on my own blog.
http://thewargamesroom.blogspot.com/2009/08/dba-ratings.html
Thanks, I thought it might be that one. It would suit my Picts, though. There's no choice with them!

[aidanbz]

I explored the hypothetical skirmish of 3Kn vs 3Sp + Ps in a little more detail. With Kn's greater speed they are likely to move into contact - so they get to pick the fighting order. I assumed that they would hit the middle element first - if they kill that they get 2 elements and the others will lose the Ps bonus. First round gives an average kill of 0.34 units for the knights and 0.17 for the spears. The second round shows where the steadiness of the Sp really pays off. If the Kn win the first round, they have a 42% chance of killing each of the other Sp, but if the Kn lose (and that's a 73% chance of death or recoil in the first round), then both the other units must fight Sp with only an 8% chance of killing a Sp, and a 33% chance of being destroyed. Tot it all up and the spears will come out at the end with an average of 0.67 kills and the knights only 0.60.

However, to be completely fair about it, we must observe that the Sp+Ps combination has 4 units, and the Kn only 3, so while all this was going on, the 4th Kn may well have been busy sacking the Sp camp.

[Jeff Franz]

So, I might ask, why put the 2Ps behind the Spear? Why not use the sneaky 2Ps to close the door on the end Kn making it a 2 to 4 both with a QK? I like the Spear number better. Besides, if the Spear general is worth anything, he is figuring on attacking the KNs. This is becasue of the very reason you gave, picking who fights first. Timeing owuld be everything.

I just don't like sitting there and taking it in the face. I would rather take it to them instead.

Just a thought

Jeff

[Mark Davies]

It's not unreasonable to think that the Kn with their greater speed will be able to get to move into contact, so Jeff's idea of the Ps flanking might be harder to pull off. However, I'm not sure I've understood the odds that you give, Aidan. On contact the Kn only have a 1/6 chance of winning, while they have a 1/6 chance of being doubled and a 5/9 chance of being recoiled. These odds are better if it's a Kn general in the centre, as he'd have a 5/18 chance of winning, and only a 1/18 chance of being doubled, but the most likely outcome (19/36) is that he will be recoiled, with unpleasant consequences for the remaining two Kn.

Alternatively you could assume it was 4 Kn attacking the Sp and Ps; this would give an overlap on one of the Sp, making the odds roughly similar to that of the general, with a slightly higher chance of the Kn being doubled (1/9).

Another approach is to seek to nullify the Ps by attacking the Sp with a unit of Bd flanked by Kn (or Wb, for that matter). The odds favour the centre Sp being forced to recoil and the remaining two Sp being overlapped without support.

[Macbeth]

I would have used it at Conquest but I think it really needs to be based on a fixed list. Conquest allows players to select options from within a defined list each game.


This problem has cropped up for me at Cancon where the Tournament Organiser will be running an all options competition, whilst I had intended to include the Cancon DBA comp in the "Magister Militum Per Capitoline Territorialis" trophy where we average the best 3 adjusted scores from the 4 ACT DBA competitions.

My solution in a multi option tournament is to use the highest rating for each army.

Cheers

[TWR]

Hmmm, that is an interesting idea. I must admit I had not considered that option.

[aidanbz]

The odds factored in the double depth of the first unit - so the Kn have a 1/6 chance of killing 2 units - average kill = 1/3 of a unit. I didn't make that very clear.

Interesting point about the Ps on the flank - clearly a good way to leverage the "pushing power" of the Sp is to force a recoil on a flanked unit. Not sure how the odds work out though.

[Mark Davies]

The odds factored in the double depth of the first unit - so the Kn have a 1/6 chance of killing 2 units - average kill = 1/3 of a unit. I didn't make that very clear.
No, to my mind that's mixing two things. The chance of something happening, which is relatively low, with the damage that may result. Whoever wins the first combat is likely to cause a lot of damage, and the odds dramatically favour the spear.

Interesting point about the Ps on the flank - clearly a good way to leverage the "pushing power" of the Sp is to force a recoil on a flanked unit. Not sure how the odds work out though.
The odds of the knights winning the first combat are the same (1/6), but the odds of them being destroyed are higher over 2/3 (26/36)—not pretty. After that, assuming the spear win, the odds are still 1/6 for the knights winning, while for them being destroyed the odds are 1/4 and being recoiled 17/36. The odds for the subsequent combats with the supporting psiloi when the spear win the first combat are better: 1/3 Kn destroyed, 1/2 Kn recoiled, 1/12 Sp destroyed. So particularly given that the flanking would be harder to pull off the psiloi support seems a better bet.