Price Increases for Figures

[Jeff Caruso]

Look for a big adjustment in the cost of your toys, folks.Those unpainted armies you have in the closet ,basement, or wherever could be an investment, a great investment.


The price of tin has already gone throught the roof and alloys used in the mixture of tin have exceeded the tin itself.

Antimony was selling at $1080 per ton and is now $2800.The pewter mix (tin based plus antimony) I use has gone from $3.65 to $5.35 per pound with $1.00 of that increase coming in the last month alone.It can hit as high as $10.00 before the summer according to the distributor of metal I just spoke to.

Reason for this?China which has been the prime supplier of tin to the USA has not only stopped supplying the USA but is buying up the tin market.China currently controls 77% of the world tin market.Their chief tin mine is closed to modernize it plus they have a huge internal demand for tin since they are manufacturing more themselves.

I can't remember as big a jump in tin prices since I've started buying figures as a teenager.

So, hang onto your hats cause it looks to get ugly.Don't know what price my figures are going to but a price increase is unavoidable.

Jeff Caruso
POTN

[Bmacster]

Jeff,

I let you out of my sight for one minute and you start rising prices!

For your info, my company is being hit by the same outrageous material price increases in Aluminum, Steel, and Copper to name a few. The entire world market is shifting. I heard that GM just accepted a huge price increase from their steel suppliers and then turned around and sued them for breach of contract. Suppliers and their customers are in for some very uncomfortable negotiations in the very near term. I think China is only responisble for a portion of the current issue but are certainly involved as a major player. They are building manufacturing plants and appartment buildings (to house the employees for those factories) as fast or faster than anyone in the west could imagine. Can you believe they have people hand tileing entire factory walls with little pretty mosaics! When's the last time we could even think of spending that type of capital on any factory in the States or elsewhere? I believe China graduated someting on the order of 100,000+ engineers last year compared to a number in only the 10,000's for the US. Seams we can't send our technology and manufacturing tooling and knowhow to China fast enough? Where's it all going to stop? Perhaps when their paper-thin banking system folds! Can you say free-market or democratic principles? I wonder?

Anyhow, as you can see, I've been only slighly concerned until now. Now my Miniatures are affected!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Regards,

[Paul A. Hannah]

Originally posted by Jeff Caruso:
China currently controls 77% of the world tin market. Their chief tin mine is closed. Shhh! Don't tell anyone, but I think my closet full of unpainted minis probably qualifies as a mine.

[rudynelson]

Just so readers will know that this is not an isolated story, I have personally talked to a number of different casting companies. Some feel that it will be October at the earliest before the price levels and next Spring 2005 before any releif can be expected.

[Jeff Caruso]

Figures,especially elephant models and all 28mm that are not lead based, are going to be hit the hardest.Could make 28mm figures collectors items only.I don't know what companies in the USA use lead anymore.

The guy who told me about the increase urged me to check it out myself, which I did.Depressing that the turn around time for potentially lower metal costs is worse than I heard, which was July.

Jeff

[Tom Dye]

The reason why you don't yet see compaies raising their prices yet is that they haven't a clue as to just how high and how quickly this price rocket is going to soar!

We, at GFI, are trying to plot some sort of track record. Talking to Jeff on the phone today, using just 10 cents a day increase, we are looking at tin being over $10.00 a pound by the end of April!

Question are: How high do we set the increase and still maintain current profit levels? How long can we maintain that level before we must again raise prices? How many times will companies have to raise prices before the costs begin to decline? Will we be able to keep our existing customer base and enough sales to keep us all in buisness?

This is some serious stuff, guys. This is one thing we will be doing to keep costs down:

Orders will ALL be "cast-on-demand". Having figures in bins just "hoping" folks will order them will become a thing of the past! This action will save in labor and utility bills. It will also result in a slower order turn-around time as ALL orders will have to be cast up, when ordered.

We appologize for the inconvenience, but we figure that our customers would rather wait a few extra days and actually GET their order rather than to have to close and it may take years before they can obtain more to complete their armies with.

Best,
Tom Dye
GFI

[GAZMAN]

this will really effect those who have their casting done by a sub contractor.
They don't have the luxury of casting to order and small runns will increase transport costs.

The WW2 stuff I do depends very heavily on large drops to keep the cost of transport percentage down. I have a big box arriving today - I will check the spin costs, I don't expect a big increase as I expect the caster is running from stock metal - but I would be expecting an increase pretty soon.

Si2

[Badger]

Uff da (as we say up here in Minneso-ota)! Makes me glad I've a big back-log of metal still awaiting painting.

Sounds like it's time to buy stock in HaT, Italeri, Zvezda, and other manufacturers of plastic miniatures....

[GAZMAN]

For me personally the metal cost will not cause a price rise in my line of 28mm stuff - metal cost is just one part of a whole raft of costs that you incurr when you start a miniatures company. Even if the cost of the castings doubled I could cover this with a few pence price increase - IMHO, not worth the negative press that would ensue - look at the complaints against NAVWAR on TMP....so I would 'absorb' it - make less profit, les to invest in new masters, less for new moulds, less for show expenses money.

Si2

[rudynelson]

I know of several who have not had price increases in at least three years despite increasingly higher overhead costs.

Whne USA companies do list their new price increases, the percentages need to be examined in different ways. Several USA companies who have attempted to keep prices low especially when compared to UK levels will have price increases. New prices will seem high when compared to old USA prices but will still be below many UK companies.

For Example a USA 15mm casting with an old price old 23 cents could have a price increase of 10% to 26 cents and still be below even half the price of the average UK 15mm price of 46 cents per foot. The similar comparisons could be made for USA companies with prices of 25 cents and 29 cents per foot. 10% increases are not bad of an impact when looking at a per casting and when compared to UK current prices for 15mm.

A 25% increase would look bad for large packaged 15mm items but would still be on 6 or 7 cents per foot casting WHICH is still BELOW the price per 15mm casting in the mid-1980s.

Am I the only one who remembers paying almost 35 cents for a BattleHonors in 1985 and 30 cents for a 1st edition Minifig in 1979 ? How much did we gamers pay for TTG and Mike's Models ? They were also over 25 cents per casting in the 1980s. We Gamers particularly 15mm gamers have become jaded in the 1990s.

[imported_Richard Lee]

I noticed Warrior Miniatures (who have had stable prices for years) have just put their prices up. Some other companies that I have been buying or considering buying from (such as Redoubt) also seem to be raising prices. These examples, at a time of generally low inflation, fit in with the information previously posted.

I don't think (please correct me if I am wrong) that anyone makes figures out of pure lead. I understand that pure lead is far from ideal for casting. All metal figures are likely to contain some tin at least.

As an interesting aside, I wonder whether the price of tin would begin to make Cornish tin mining viable again? I suppose any investor would have to be sure that the price of tin would remain high for a number of years. If I remember my geography lessons from school properly cheap Malaysian tin helped finish off the last of the Cornish tin mines. Tin mining in Cornwall (extreme South West of England) is believed to date back to antiquity.

[ April 08, 2004, 15:37: Message edited by: Richard Lee ]

[rudynelson]

Richard the Cornish tin mines is a good question.
We still have gold fields in east Alabama (largest until the Calif strike of 1849) but the quality of grain is so poor that the price would have to hit $700 per ounce again before they would consider opening them.
I suppose the same consideration is in mind for the tin mines?

[ April 09, 2004, 00:08: Message edited by: rudynelson ]

[Tom Dye]

Ney metals says that there are only 4 metal brokers in the world. (Where the smelters get their ore from). Three are out of tin. Why? Conquest (One of the major suppliers to this industry of casting alloys to the US market) explains that the Chinese have been buying up the world's supply, in an attempt to corner the market on tin.

Tin is used in many of our consumer products: solder being one of the "choke" products. Every computer, TV, electronic item, appliances' electrical connections, food (cans, lids, etc)uses tin. The jewelry industry is an even larger consumer of tin than we hobbyists and our toy soldiers!

Overnite, it seems that the situation has gone from "how high will the materials cost" to "Will we still be able to get the raw materials"! This threatens several industries. Most are more affluent than us minis makers! Guess who will lose out when supplies become very short?

Like it or not, believe us or not, the costs of your NEW figures will be rising! (Unless someone can discover a new white metal formula that has similiar properties to pewter, is reasonable in cost and does not contain tin at all! Any of you have a degree in metalurology? (sp?)

Best,
Tom Dye
GFI

[Jeff Caruso]

For those you want more infomation than is safe to download to your brain on the price history og tin go here : http://216.239.57.104/search?q=cache:uVG3NeMZY64J:minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/tin/660798.pdf+tin+prices&hl=en&ie=UTF-8

Jeff

[Ivan]

Call me crazy, but maybe we should just go back to lead! I know the stuff is hazardous, but if prices are so high, perhaps it would be cheaper to use whatever safety equipment is necessary to safely cast in lead instead. As long as you don't eat it, my impression is that it is pretty safe at the consumer end. I have no idea what would be required to make it safe for manufacturers though, presumably masks/filters of some kind, and perhaps an air 'hood' as found in science labs, to draw out harmful fumes?

From a hobbyist point of view, lead is easier to work with. It is softer, so it bends more easily, and is easier to trim flash from or cut up for conversion. I have read though that when stored in a closed environment with wood, it will suffer 'lead rot' and eventually disentegrate. I have just spent 15 minutes trying to track down the Navy report on this that I read a month or two ago, but cannot find it! I thought it was linked of of the virtual alchemist site.

Believe it or not, the Navy has a serious interest in lead preservation, because they have an enormous collection of historically valuable scale ship models from various sources. These are either made of lead (in the case of small scale visual recognition guide models) or incorporate lead components (in the case of larger models made to represent specific ships).

[Paul A. Hannah]

Originally posted by Ivan:
Call me crazy, but maybe we should just go back to lead!You mean minis aren't made of lead anymore? ;)

--your resident, Mikes Models devotee

[Jeff Caruso]

Originally posted by P.A.H.
_________________________________________________
quote :
You mean minis aren't made of lead anymore?
_________________________________________________

Not to my knowledge and in spite of mr. Dillion's constant referal to my figures being in lead. :rolleyes:


I doubt any US manufacturer would jump back to using lead due to the liability.

The lawsuit against MiniFigs years ago in New York state that came about as the result of a divorce action between parties with no connection to MiniFigs other than the husband owning some miniatures, sealed the fate of lead figures in the USA.(Darn, I'm even writing in Barkerese. :D )

The lawsuit was resolved favorably in MF's favor but the legal costs were daunting.

Most figures had an alloy in the lead anyway and they are going up as well.

Jeff

[rudynelson]

Paul, do not ask for additional details because confidentiality is a key to my good relations with many companies. I do know of some companies (both 15mm and 25mm) overseas AND in the USA know have always used some lead in their casting formula.

To my knowledge, Neither Tom nor Jeff uses uses the lead formulas.

As far as I know, the lead scare of New York never spread to too many states other than Ca and even in NY it quietly collapsed without serious legislation.

[Paul A. Hannah]

Originally posted by rudynelson:
Paul, do not ask for additional details because confidentiality is a key to my good relations with many companies. Hmmm, could Messrs. Nelson and Caruso be taking my "minis aren't lead anymore?" comment seriously? I was just being facetious. smile.gif --As in, I've been so absorbed in all those ancient Mikes Models ancients that I haven't noticed what's happened in the hobby over the last quarter-century. :D --Or, maybe it's cuz I've absorbed so much of that toxic lead that I'm only semi-conscious anyway.

[ April 09, 2004, 09:17: Message edited by: Paul A. Hannah ]

[rudynelson]

Paul I was surprised when you did not comment on my earlier post concerning what we paid for (regular retail) Mike's Models retail in the mid-1980s? Do you remember?

[Paul A. Hannah]

Originally posted by rudynelson:
Paul I was surprised when you did not comment on my earlier post concerning what we paid for (regular retail) Mike's Models retail in the mid-1980s? Oops! Sorry, I must have missed that post, Rudy. :(

Originally posted by rudynelson:
Do you remember [what we paid for them]?Remember? --Heck, I got their 1983 catalog right here! :cool: Per pack, they were 25-cents a figure, or 30 cents as single-figures. And the only variety you would get was if somebody's shield, spear or head was mis-cast. :D

'Course, now I get MM for around 10-cents a figure, when I can find 'em. --Hey, the sellers are probably amazed that some silly fool such as I would pay anything for them.

But, getting back to your main point, yes, 15mm figure prices have remained remarkably stable over the last 20 years. And the choices, quality and figure-pose variety have expanded a hundredfold.

[ April 09, 2004, 12:10: Message edited by: Paul A. Hannah ]

[Ed Dillon]

Originally posted by Jeff Caruso:
Originally posted by P.A.H.
_________________________________________________
quote :
You mean minis aren't made of lead anymore?
_________________________________________________

Not to my knowledge and in spite of mr. Dillion's constant referal to my figures being in lead. :rolleyes:

So you finally got the lead out.... sheesh, we've been telling you to do that for years... smile.gif
BTW, there is only one "i" in Dillon. It's a name, not a value. (He said, stealing Nicklaus Wirths old joke for database geeks.)

[Tom Dye]

To my knowledge, Neither Tom nor Jeff uses uses the lead formulas.


It is literally the SAME metal! (Jeff comes over and uses my machines while I harass him with my infamous horrible jokes and industry news!---It makes him work faster! 8>) ) (HI, Jeff!)

Happy Easter to All!

Tom Dye
GFI

[Tom Dye]

As long as you don't eat it, my impression is that it is pretty safe at the consumer end. I have no idea what would be required to make it safe for manufacturers though, presumably masks/filters of some kind, and perhaps an air 'hood' as found in science labs, to draw out harmful fumes?


The "lead" you speak of is an alloy of (usually) 60% lead, 38% TIN, 1% Antimony and 1% Bismouth.

Save for manufacturers when the pot is held within 50 degrees of it's operating temp (750 F , IIRC). Most PRO casting operations already have an exhaust hood over the pot.

When I worked for Stone Mountain in 92 (after retiring from the USAF), we had an independant company come in and do tests for lead absorption. The standard was something like .010 and we all collected about .0025 after a weeks worth of exposure. Waaaay below OSHA standards! We had walked around with "badges" (We don't need no stink'in badges!)which collected air samples.

Lead becomes very hazzardous when it starts to become vaporous. Pure lead is crap to work with anyway! Forget any fine detail. It will cool down before it can flow into the small crevaces.

FWIW, guys.

Best,
Tom Dye
GFI

[Roland Fricke]

For work I had to research the dangers of lead alloys including the Navy report on lead intake by people doing a lot of soldering.

As Tom said, it came down to make sure you don't overheat it. So we installed back up systems, extra thermocouples and switches that fail open so the melting pots wouldn't over heat and create a lot of vapors. This alloy is 60 Tin, 38 Lead and antimony aand melts at 369F so we cast it at 420F.

Now, the second best way according to the report, to get large doses was injestion by sanding/grinding lead and creating small particles that you might pick up on your hands and then go and eat. So don't sand the stuff (or be very careful) and wash your hands like your mama told you.

[ April 10, 2004, 20:08: Message edited by: Roland Fricke ]

[orca]

I have one piece of advice - Plastics!

[rudynelson]

Sorry, Keith but in the South and West there is no resale value in Plastics so the overall value of the casting is less. professional painters also will not touch plastics in my region.

i only go to about 20 conventions per year and I never see plastics re-sell at a good price. I sold 800+ on ebay (Airfix) and got maybe $19.00 after listing costs.

[Ares]

Originally posted by rudynelson:
Sorry, Keith but in the South and West there is no resale value in Plastics so the overall value of the casting is less.Fortunately this doesn't affect their morale or fighting ability!! :D

Surely, Keith was speaking from a hobbyist/wargamer point-of-view, rather than that of a collector/painter. It would be interesting to know how many DBA-ers approach the hobby from those respective positions (if it can be divided into such).

Eric

[rudynelson]

Good Question Eric.
My guess would be that due to the small size of DBA armies you might have more paint to keep players than in other gaming eras.

[Badger]

Originally posted by Tom Dye:
When I worked for Stone Mountain in 92 (after retiring from the USAF), we had an independant company come in and do tests for lead absorption. The standard was something like .010 and we all collected about .0025 after a weeks worth of exposure. Waaaay below OSHA standards! We had walked around with "badges" (We don't need no stink'in badges!)which collected air samples.
Of course, how often has longer-term scientific research found that supposedly "safe" levels turned out to be hazardous after all? And remember, OSHA is a government body, and hence subject to political pressure -- remember Dubya's efforts early in his presidency to get us to shut up and drink our arsenic?

I wouldn't feel comfortable being under OSHA limits on this kind of exposure unless it were several orders of magnitude below supposedly "safe" levels.

[<jason>]

OSHA page on lead
http://www.osha.gov/SLTC/lead/

[Stelzone]

Originally posted by Roland Fricke:
Now, the second best way according to the report, to get large doses was injestion by sanding/grinding lead and creating small particles that you might pick up on your hands and then go and eat. So don't sand the stuff (or be very careful) and wash your hands like your mama told you. This also means don't file it more than needed, or at all if possible. Use exacto knife to trim down and a file for the last small bits. Vacuum up dust soon after, this advice from Dr. friend who was a gamer as well.

We talked about this after one of the big spy thriller writers was diagnosed with complications caused from lead and aluminium poisonings. He was a big collecter and used solder to connect pieces. he was in a whelchair and was not expected to recover fully.

[ April 13, 2004, 13:19: Message edited by: Stelzone ]

[Badger]

Originally posted by Stelzone:
We talked about this after one of the big spy thriller writers was diagnosed with complications caused from lead and aluminium poisonings.Do you remember who the author was, by any chance? I'm just wondering it it was someone whose work I've read.

[imported_Grant Dyck]

Originally posted by rudynelson:
Sorry, Keith but in the South and West there is no resale value in Plastics so the overall value of the casting is less. professional painters also will not touch plastics in my region.

i only go to about 20 conventions per year and I never see plastics re-sell at a good price. I sold 800+ on ebay (Airfix) and got maybe $19.00 after listing costs. Ah, but those are SOFT plastics. Hard plastics, like the fabulous ones that GW are doing, are very popular. Can anyone imagine how cool it would be to have modular 15mm minis? Hmmm...

Of course, the molds for plastics are so cost-prohibitive that even GW I think puts hard thought into what sells best (I have heard they actually now own a plasics FACTORY...).

Curiously, GW is raising some prices here in Canada, and LOWERING some as well. For a while, with the dollar fluctuating (thanks, Mr. Bush for making my holiday cheaper), one could almost employ arbitrage techniques and make money on the stuff. Almost...